Special report / Trade and policy

The 29 September Line

When the second Section 232 deadline lands, which parts of Asia's pharmaceutical trade are actually exposed, and which are sheltered? The carve-out has left the region deeply uneven. This report maps it, heading by heading and origin by origin.

Time remaining until the line
00Days
00Hours
00Mins
00Secs
25 pages · 10 figures · Eight origin markets mapped · Free
Asia-Pacific originUnited States entry
View
Six of eight origin markets carry flows that pass the line largely untouched. Two do not.
0%Default ad valorem rate on covered patented product, APIs and key starting materials
0%Ceiling for Japan and the Republic of Korea, the only named APAC positions
0Companies in Annex III, tariffed since 31 July. Everyone else waits
0Tariff lines across HTS Chapters 29 and 30, via Chapter 99 headings
0%Rate with both an onshoring plan and an MFN pricing agreement, to Jan 2029
Interactive / The three axes

Are you actually exposed?

Exposure is decided on three independent axes, and most published analysis stops at the second. Answer three questions and see what the proclamation does to your shipment.

AXIS 01 / THE HEADING

What are you shipping into the United States?

AXIS 02 / THE ORIGIN

What is the country of origin?

AXIS 03 / THE COMPANY

What agreements does the manufacturer hold?

—
Answer the three questions
Pick an option in each panel and this will resolve your position under Proclamation 11020, in the order the proclamation itself applies them.
Indicative only, based on the proclamation as published. Not legal, customs or investment advice. Classification, origin and exemption determinations should be confirmed with qualified trade counsel.
Figure 04 / To true scale

Five rates, one measure

Drawn to true scale, because the gap between the lanes is the story. Tap a column to see what sits behind it.

Tap a column

Country of origin and company agreement status are separate axes. A company takes the lower of the two.

Figure 07 / The region at a glance

Where the exposure actually sits

Colour encodes net exposure on 29 September, the finding of the report, rather than the headline ceiling. Click any market.

US ENTRY Sheltered Moderate Exposed
Figure 02 / The sequence

Ten dates that decide the decade

Click any milestone to expand it. Dates in red are announced rather than promulgated.

What is inside

Ten figures, two sidebars, one grid

Built on the text of Proclamation 11020 and its four annexes, the BIS notice of 13 May 2026, and the Federal Register record, cross-checked against eight contemporaneous practitioner alerts.

The report

Read it before the line lands

Page through the whole thing below, then take the PDF with you. No cost, no paywall.

Loading preview

Get the full report

25 pages, PDF. We will send nothing you did not ask for.
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Please enter your organisation
Please select a role
Please select a market
✓

Your download is starting

The 29 September Line, 25 pages. If it did not begin automatically, use the button below.

Two variables are expected to move before the deadline. We will send a revised edition if either does.

Ankit Kankar
A note from the COO
“The question our readers keep asking is not what the rate is. It is whether the rate applies to them. Answering that properly meant building a grid rather than writing a reaction.”
Ankit Kankar
Chief Operating Officer, BioSpectrum Asia