22 May 2013, BioSpectrum Bureau , BioSpectrum
Singapore: A new study by research and consulting firm GlobalData, highlighted that Japan's chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) market is going to witness a steady growth over the next decade. This is inspite of the global decline that the global life sciences industry is facing.
The report pointed out that Japan's branded CML therapeutics market will increase from a value of $489 million in 2012 to reach $565 million in 2022, climbing at a modest compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.5 percent over the next 10 year period. However, the penetration of generics in Japan continues to remain low when compared with the other major markets.
This increase in revenue makes the Japanese market unique among the seven major markets covered in the report. The CML markets in the US, the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain are all expected to decline by 2022 due to significant generic erosion of key CML drugs.
The upcoming patent expiries of Novartis' Gleevec and Bristol-Myers Squibb's Sprycel will significantly disturb the global sales of CML therapeutics over the next decade. Revenue for Gleevec, which accounted for roughly half of the worldwide CML market value in 2012, is expected to plummet from $1.57 billion in 2012 to $253 million in 2022, while Sprycel sales are forecast to drop from $765 million-to-$214 million during the same period.
An increasing number of prevalent cases of CML coupled with the launch of Pfizer's Bosulif and Ariad's Iclusig over the forecast period will more than compensate for the generic erosion of Gleevec and Sprycel sales in Japan. As a result, Japan is set to increase its share of the combined CML therapeutics market for the seven major markets, expanding from 16 percent-to-27 percent in just 10 years.